About the blog
I posted my first report on February 29th, 2024. The report was called “Ero Copper: Significant upside even if copper expansion doesn´t come through.” I wrote it for another investor platform, but it never got published. So, I decided to post it online. I never expected to get such a positive response.
Incidentally, 2 months prior to my first publishing I had met for dinner a US hedge fund manager who I admire. He told me that perhaps starting my own blog could get my name out and help me focus on my ideas. He was spot on. Thanks to this blog thousands of interesting people have reached out, and I have received excellent feedback and criticism on my ideas and approach to investing.
Given the popularity of the blog, I kept posting the stocks I invest in and why I invest in them. Moving forward to today, the blog has over 4500 free subscribers. Of those 4500 readers, over 100 of you contribute to the blog with a yearly or monthly subscription even though you get nothing in return except my gratitude.
To keep delivering this level of deep-value research and to have the time to answer your emails, I am officially transitioning this blog to a paid model. I do everything myself, and this allows me to maintain the quality you expect.
I am blown away by the support I have received, and no words can describe how grateful I am to all my readers. Researching stocks is my passion and I have discovered that writing also gives me great joy, so I feel unbelievably lucky that people find value in my work.
Since the 29th of February 2024 I have posted 28 reports, of which 16 are long reports. Each of these 16 reports are between 30 and 40 pages long and took me 100s of hours of research and writing to get them each completed. The other 12 reports were updates and therefore shorter in length and effort. The stocks I covered were mostly litigation, commodities, shipping, and mining stocks.
My message today is that after 2 years of writing for free I have decided to turn the blog into a paid platform. I receive hundreds of emails and messages each week but there is not enough time to answer all of you. By introducing a paid tier, the number of subscribers will likely reduce in number, and therefore the quality and quantity of my responses and posts will increase.
Even though I have made mistakes, I feel like I have produced good research. To keep delivering this level of research and to have the time to answer your emails, I need to transition to a paid model. I do everything myself and I search for stocks one by one.
I prefer doing things the old way. I did not even use an LLM until very late in 2024. And I did not use it for investing until 2025. Even today I prefer to use it to satisfy my curiosity rather than for investing.
Some may think that not using an LLM as my main tool may put me at a disadvantage, but I think it is the opposite. I argue that if everyone uses the same tools, they will achieve the same results. And I aspire to achieve something better.
What you can expect from now on
Since I started the blog, I have averaged about one post per month, whether it was an update or a deep dive. You should expect the same rate of publishing.
I come from a family of wine makers, and my uncle has always told me that you cannot increase output without putting quality at risk, I believe that very much to be true. If I were to promise you an increase in output of ideas, then the quality of each investment idea would be in jeopardy.
Furthermore, I argue that good investment ideas should be bought and waited upon. I first posted about PGMs and Generation Mining on March 2024. Since than Generation Mining is up 200%. Had I posted ideas weekly, the temptation of diversifying into other stocks or switching to another idea may have been too great.
Warren Buffett’s “sitting on your ass” philosophy emphasizes patience, long-term holding, and avoiding unnecessary trading. I believe that philosophy to be the correct one.
As a result of this, not much will change except perhaps you will be getting more updates on the stocks, and you will get quicker responses from me. Too many emails have gone unanswered simply because managing such a big subscriber base is unrealistic.
I could have decided not to answer any emails or messages, but so many of you offer interesting insights into investing and life, and I want to keep those conversations alive.
About myself
I am not sure how to start this, so I guess I will start from the beginning of my investing journey.
I started investing when I was 13 years old by serendipity. My parents and grandparents had put a bit of money each year into a savings account since I was born. When I was 13, I found out that my dad had put all that money into a Spanish stock. I was surprised that such a thing could be done, and I started researching the stock. That is where my journey with investing started.
From the very beginning I was extremely interested in stocks. It seemed to me that a person could make money by turning knowledge and patience into money, regardless of its intelligence. This was very appealing to me as I have always been passionate about knowledge.
From the time I was 13 it already struck me as evident that the price chart of a stock gave me very little insight into the underlying business. I did not know what technical analysis was, but when I found out it made no sense.
Therefore, my way to advance in investing was to read out what the company was doing, the fundamentals were fascinating to me. Each company and sector seemed to me like start fresh on a good book.
I guess the main reason behind this passion is that I am obsessed with history. And a true historian searches for truth, whether it is in the narrative or in the numbers.
Therefore, I argue that there is no difference between a good historian and an investor: Both search for the truth. And in the essence of it, that is what I try to find: The truth behind each stock that I read about.
In the pillars of investing, I believe there are two worlds: The stock price and the fundamentals of the business. And I believe that both are often in a disconnect, leading to inefficiencies. And although my approach to investing has changed over the years, my underlying aim has always been to search for a business where the fundamentals make sense, but the stock price (the market) is giving no value to such business.
That is why I am focused on deep value research.
I currently live in Andorra, but I was born in Spain. I have lived 4 years in England and 2 years in the Netherlands.
Regarding my personality: I said earlier I believe in the “old ways.” I argue that the principles our grandparents stood for made more sense than the ones most people defend today.
The principles that stand the most within me are honesty, respect, integrity, kindness, empathy, gratitude, perseverance, authenticity, loyalty, and hard work. I like these principles because they are achievable by almost anyone.
Whereas a lot of people today appreciate being extroverted, ambitious, charismatic, inspirational or “high energy.” These principles do not make much sense to me because they do not say much about the person and they are not attainable, except by birth.
The performance
Stocks sold in 2025
The performance of the blog has been extraordinary so far. 2025 was the first complete year of the blog and it yielded an average of 67% in average returns for stocks I sold.
Regarding stocks I kept, the return was even better at 172%.
Stocks I still hold.
I have been investing since I was 13, and I am now 28 years old. I have been invested in plenty of stocks throughout the years. Therefore, most of my investing life has happened before I started the blog.
I have made plenty of mistakes, particularly when I was about 17 and 18. I invested in extremely speculative stocks in which I ended up losing 90% of what I invested. I even invested in an engineering firm that ended up going broke. Thankfully, I learned a lot from this, and it was at early (or earlier) age.
My best wins have been mainly three.1. I invested in Tesla when I was 19 years old, but I did not even know why I invested in it. So, I sold really early at a low three digit return on my portfolio. 2. Then in 2017 and 2018, when I was 20 years old, I put all my money into junior uranium mining stocks. I held them for 5 years and I bought more in 2020. I ended up selling all my uranium stocks in 2022 for an average return of over 1000% on my portfolio. My best stocks were the following:
· Global atomic (1138%)
· Boss Energy (1452%)
· Encore Energy (503%)
· Vimy Resources (1229%)
· Bannerman (841%)
My mistake was incidentally not switching into the second derivative of that trade, which would have been nuclear energy stocks like Nuscale or Oklo. I knew these stocks since their IPO, but I just thought they were too speculative.
3. Then my third largest win came since 2022. After I sold all my uranium stocks I switched to copper, gold, platinum, and palladium stocks. This has been well reported on my blog, so I will not go into much detail on it. As you can see on the tables above, Generation Mining has returned 429% on 2025 alone.
Bear in mind that my investment horizon is about five years, so the stories of the stocks I hold are not over yet.
My tendency is to be really early on my investments. I recall buying Fission Uranium stock in 2017 and 2018 and seeing it fall 80% by 2020. And I expect this could have happened (and still could happen) to my PGM stocks. I say this as a warning if I may, you can expect plenty of volatility from the stocks I own.
My investment philosophy
I wrote a 40-page report available on my blog about how I approach investing. So, I will not go into much detail about it.
I aim for maximum absolute returns, regardless of market conditions. I do not aim for good relative performance against indices like the S&P.
I focus on a small, high conviction portfolio. I do not think diversifying makes sense. Although if I am investing in an entire industry, I do not mind doing it across many names.
I am willing to find opportunities almost anywhere regardless of the sector, region, or volatility of the sector. That said, if I feel clueless about an opportunity, I will never invest in it. I want to respect the circle of competence.
Identifying inflection points, particularly in commodities, is one of my aims. This means that you will often see me investing in commodities or sectors that have been down heavily for many years. It also means that I am bit of a contrarian as these opportunities are often found in unloved stocks.
I much rather be early and wait (accepting time, drawdowns, and patience as the cost) over being late and missing out entirely.
Upside is theoretically infinite, while margin of safety is quantifiable. If you see me calculate upside on my reports, it is more about making sure that even if I am wrong by a significant margin, the stock is all right.
Example: If I estimate the stock is worth $4 billion and it trades for $400 million, the upside could be $3.6 billion but that is impossible to know because upside is theoretically infinite. But at least we know that even if I am somewhat wrong and the business is worth $2 billion, the downside is limited.
Pricing
Subscription:
Monthly: $35/month.
Yearly: $350/year.
Founding member: $750/year
Founding Member tier includes:
· A guaranteed quarterly group video call
Any feedback is more than welcome in the comments, or you can send me a message on Substack or through my twitter (X) account @AAGresearch.
As always, I want to thank my wife Yeimy. This report and this blog would not be possible without her. Thank you.
I hope this finds you well,
Alberto Álvarez González.
Disclaimer: I assume no liability for any and all of your actions, whether derived out of or in connection with this information or elsewhere, and you hereby warrant and represent that any and all actions that you take or that you may take at a later date in connection with this information shall remain your sole responsibility and, in case, I shall not be held liable for any such actions.
Muchas gracias por este resumen de tu trayectoria.